October 09, 2026

Bitcoin Posts Its Best Third Quarter Since 2017, but Momentum Has Faded

Bitcoin gained roughly 42–44% in Q3 2026, rising from about $58,500 to the low-to-mid $80,000s after losses of 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2, while Ethereum rose about 71%, its best Q3 on record. Most of the move came after the US Treasury's 19 August announcement, with bitcoin up about 30% from that date and reaching an eight-month high near $87,315 in late September.

Momentum has since faded: bitcoin was rejected near $87,000 and fell below $85,000 on 7 October amid about $550 million of liquidations, mostly longs, leaving it under its 2026 opening price of roughly $88,700. [1]

Spot ETF Flows Swing from Deep July Outflows to Net Inflows for the Year

US spot bitcoin ETFs were about $5.8 billion in net outflows for 2026 in July, then took in roughly $5.3 billion after the Treasury's 19 August announcement, lifting year-to-date flows back above zero. Demand peaked at $2.4 billion in the week to 25 September, and a single Monday inflow near $1 billion ranked ninth largest since the funds launched in January 2024. Flows have since turned uneven, with about $190 million entering on 2 October and roughly $90 million leaving on 5 October. [2]

Fed Delivers First Hike Since 2023 as Treasury Buybacks Reshape Long-End Liquidity

The FOMC voted 12-0 on 16 September to raise the federal funds target by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023, citing elevated inflation and Middle East tensions. The updated projections lifted the median 2026 year-end rate to 4.1%, pointing to one more hike this year, and raised the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast to 3.4%. Separately, Treasury announced on 19 August that the maximum size of its long-end buyback operations would double from $2 billion to $4 billion for 9 September to 4 November, and while crypto rallied afterwards, the timing alone does not establish causation. [3]

Senate Blocks the CLARITY Act, Stalling US Market-Structure Legislation

The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on 15 September, with the cloture vote falling 49–50 against a 60-vote threshold, after the House had passed the bill 294–134 in July 2025. Every Democrat voted no, and bitcoin fell to about $76,000 as the tally became clear. With Congress recessing ahead of the November midterms the bill is effectively shelved, and one explainer judges comprehensive legislation unlikely before 2027. [4]

SEC Acts Within Its Own Authority With Proposed Reg Crypto and a Tokenization Exemption

On 18 August the SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, including a startup exemption for offerings up to $5 million over four years and a fundraising exemption of up to $75 million per year. On 17 September, days after the Senate vote, it issued a five-year exemption letting tokenized-securities trading venues operate without registering as exchanges. Regulation Crypto Assets remains a proposed rule rather than effective law, with public comments being accepted through October. [5]

Hack Losses Reach $1.26 Billion in Q3, Led by Bitget and Liquid Network

CertiK recorded $1.26 billion in losses across 247 incidents in Q3, up 53.9% from Q2, with about $769 million lost in September alone. The largest case was Bitget, where about $387.5 million left hot wallets from 24 September through a flaw in a third-party security product, and its CEO suspects a North Korean group. Blockstream's Liquid Network lost about $319 million on 6 September through a validator bug, and about 85% was returned after the patch. [6]

[1] bitcoinethereumnews.com [2] crypto.news [3] economics.td.com [4] datawallet.com [5] Sec.gov [6] cointelegraph.com

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